- TRX could 4x in value if Bitcoin’s bull run continues, thanks to its strong correlation with BTC and smaller market cap which allows for more explosive upside.
- Tron’s fundamentals are solid, with rapid adoption in Asia and more USDT circulating on its network than on Ethereum, showing real-world usage and growing trust.
- All TRX holders are currently in profit, creating a positive feedback loop that may attract more buyers and push prices higher if the bullish trend holds.
So, Tron (TRX) might be gearing up for a major breakout—and a lot of it comes down to how it’s been moving in sync with Bitcoin (BTC). Yeah, according to on-chain analyst Carmelo Alemán, if BTC keeps pushing higher for the rest of the year, TRX could maybe even 4x. Sounds wild, but here’s what’s driving that idea.
When Bitcoin Moves, TRX Follows—Hard
Bitcoin is still the big boss of the crypto world. It was down just 0.5% over the past 24 hours, sitting around $109,500. But even when BTC isn’t pumping hard, it still drags a bunch of altcoins along for the ride—TRX included. Alemán broke it down on CryptoQuant recently, explaining how the correlation—measured with the fancy Pearson coefficient—means that when BTC goes up, strongly tied tokens like TRX often go up even harder.
He mentioned TRX, SUI, ADA, HBAR, and LTC all as coins that tend to move with BTC. Since Bitcoin’s already worth $2.17 trillion, its growth is kind of capped. But TRX? With a market cap of just $26 billion, there’s way more room to run. As Alemán put it, “Bitcoin maybe doubles, but TRX and friends? They could triple or quadruple, easy.”
In the last month, BTC has jumped 16.4%. A bit slower this past week, sure—just 3.7%—but zoom out and it’s still up 60% over the past year. And in that same time frame, TRX has really shown off—up 146.4%. It’s currently trading at $0.2768, just about 35% under its all-time high of $0.4313 set back in December.
TRX Isn’t Just Riding Bitcoin’s Coattails
The bullish vibe around Tron isn’t only because of its Bitcoin connection. Nope—there’s some real substance here. Tron’s network has grown like crazy, especially in Asia. In fact, it pulled off something big: USDT (Tether) supply on Tron now beats Ethereum’s. That’s a serious flex in terms of utility.
And there’s more. According to CryptoQuant’s drawdown heatmaps and other risk metrics, TRX is looking super solid compared to other altcoins. Its 180-day Sharpe Ratio is floating between 0.1 and 0.15—not bad—and its Normalized Risk Metric sits around 0.5. That kind of profile suggests it’s giving solid returns for the risk taken.
Oh, and get this: as of mid-May, every TRX holder—whether they just got in or have been hodling forever—is in profit. That’s rare. And usually, when everyone’s in the green, they start talking. A lot. Which brings in more buyers and pushes the price up even more. Could be the start of something bigger.
