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Solana ETF Approval Odds Spike to 60% in July: Here is What You Need to Know Before Its Too Late

by Sham
June 10, 2025
in Crypto, Finance, Opinion, Solana
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Solana ETF Approval Odds Spike to 60% in July: Here is What You Need to Know Before Its Too Late
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  • The SEC has requested Solana ETF issuers to submit revised S-1 forms within a week, with feedback expected within 30 days.
  • Regulatory discussions now include staking and in-kind redemptions, with July approval potentially on the table.
  • With CME SOL futures already live and major asset managers onboard, optimism is high for a spot Solana ETF launch this year.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission appears to be accelerating the approval process for a potential Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund, according to sources familiar with the matter. The agency has reportedly asked issuers to submit revised S-1 forms within the next week — a notable step that signals increasing regulatory engagement.

JUST IN: Solana $SOL ETF has a 57% chance of approval in July, according to Polymarket pic.twitter.com/UgNHsUO6iw

— BlockNews (@blocknewsdotcom) June 10, 2025

Two of the sources told Blockworks that the SEC plans to issue comments within 30 days after the updated filings are submitted. These updates are expected to focus on in-kind redemption structures and the issuers’ plans for staking — a key detail, as the SEC seems open to allowing staking to be integrated into SOL-based ETFs.

One source estimated that this momentum could push approvals through within the next three to five weeks. Bloomberg Intelligence’s James Seyffart echoed the optimism, suggesting that approval could come as early as July. “We think the SEC may now focus on handling 19b-4 filings for Solana and staking ETFs earlier than planned,” he wrote in a note.

A Crowded Field of Issuers

Interest in a Solana ETF has been heating up, with big names like Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and 21Shares all filing proposals. Grayscale, in particular, is taking the same path it followed with its Bitcoin and Ethereum funds, aiming to convert its existing SOL Trust into a spot ETF.

While the SEC delayed a decision on Grayscale’s Solana ETF just last month, it did formally acknowledge the 19b-4 filing in February — something Seyffart called “significant,” given the agency’s past hesitance. “We are under the assumption that most, if not all, [crypto ETF filings] will be approved this year,” he said. “Some, possibly earlier than others.”

Seyffart also pointed out that both Solana and XRP already have derivatives-based ETFs, which typically clear one of the SEC’s key hurdles for approving spot versions. “So I would just be absolutely and utterly stunned if the SEC does something to not allow a spot XRP or spot Solana ETF to launch,” he added.

Futures Market Adds Fuel

The CME’s launch of SOL futures in February is seen as a major catalyst. That’s the same setup seen before the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, making it a bullish sign for SOL. Since then, a number of Solana futures ETFs have rolled out, including two launched by Volatility Shares.

Would love to hear directly from Atkins, but all good chance of happening. Here’s our latest odds of approval for all the dif spot ETFs via @JSeyff https://t.co/nLhYJJmO9U pic.twitter.com/4AcJVwhics

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) April 30, 2025

While the official deadline for the SEC to make a decision is in October — thanks to the 240-day review period — many industry insiders believe approval could happen far sooner. “The groundwork is basically laid,” one source said. “It’s just a matter of timing now.”

Tags: FidelityJames SeyffartsecSolanaSolana ETF
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